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#2024yr4

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Sternwarte Dresden-Gönnsdorf

Keine Gefahr für die Erde, aber vielleicht für den Mond..?🌔Der #asteroid #2024YR4 bleibt im Blick der Planetary Defense Community.🔭Klingt nach einem epischen Namen?Nicht nur der ist episch, auch die Aufgaben sind es.Mehr darüber gibt es im aktuellen Beitrag von Josis Blick in den Himmel👉sternwarte-goennsdorf.de/josi/ .Das Foto des James-Webb-Teleskops zeigt den Asteroiden.Unspektakulär?Der Brocken ist so groß wie ein Gebäude mit 15 Stockwerken!😮
Fotocredits: #nasa #esa #csa STScI, A. Rivkin (JHU APL)

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Michael Busch

Davide Farnocchia reviews #2024YR4:

63 observatories, >500 observations.

3.8% chance of lunar impact in 2032 December, with the last observations for this year still pending.

It will likely require waiting until 2028 to resolve the lunar impact possibility. But it cannot impact Earth.

#PDC2025
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Olly 👾

NASA doubles odds of Moon hitting Near-Earth Asteroid [2024 YR4].

"Experts at NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies at the agency’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory have updated [2024 YR4]’s chance of impacting the Moon on December 22, 2032 from 1.7 to 3.8 percent," the agency said.

science.nasa.gov/blogs/planeta

GIF
#asteroid#2024yr4#space
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Kuuke's Sterrenbeelden

Aardscheerder 2024 YR4 is vermoedelijk afkomstig uit de hoofdgordel

Astronomen hebben met behulp van het GMOS-instrument (Gemini Multi-Object Spectrograph) aan de Gemini Zuid-telescoop bepaald dat de recent gevonden aardscheerder 2024 YR4 een van de grootste objecten in de recente geschiedenis is dat op de Maan kan ins

kuuke.nl/aardscheerder-2024-yr

#2024YR4#aardscheerder#asterode
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AkaSci 🛰️

Here are three orthogonal views of a convex shape model of asteroid 2024 YR4 from the paper - a top down view (X-Y) and 2 side views (X-Z and Y-Z).

The asteroid is spinning around the Z axis.

So, what are the physical processes responsible for this flattish shape? Was the asteroid more spherical in the distant past?

Paper: arxiv.org/html/2503.05694v2
#2024YR4
5/n

Three orthogonal views of the convex shape model of 2024 YR4
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Michael Busch

I read people being surprised that #2024YR4 is shaped like an irregular block.

Such a shape is typical for small rapidly-spinning asteroids, which are held together by tensile strength rather than by gravity.

For a similarly-sized comparison, consider 2015 HM10: public.nrao.edu/news/radar-201

National Radio Astronomy ObservatoryImage Release: Radar Observations Shine New Light on Near-Earth Asteroid - National Radio Astronomy ObservatorySummer school astronomers image near-Earth asteroid.
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Daniel Fischer

The discovery and characterization of Earth-crossing asteroid #2024YR4: arxiv.org/abs/2503.05694 -> Astronomers Trace Earth-Crossing Asteroid to Surprising Origin: keckobservatory.org/2024-yr4/ (namely that it's a solid, stony type that likely originated from an asteroid family in the central Main Belt between Mars and Jupiter, a region not previously known to produce Earth-crossing asteroids).

arXiv.orgThe discovery and characterization of Earth-crossing asteroid 2024 YR$_4$We describe observations and physical characteristics of Earth-crossing asteroid 2024 YR$_4$, discovered on 2024 December 27 by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System. The asteroid has semi-major axis, $a$ = 2.52 au, eccentricity, $e$ = 0.66, inclination $i$ = 3.41$^{\circ}$, and a $\sim$0.003 au Earth minimum orbit intersection distance. We obtained g, r, i, and Z imaging with the Gemini South/Gemini Multi-Object Spectrograph on 2025 February 7 and Y and J imaging with the Keck/Multi-Object Spectrometer For Infra-Red Exploration on 2025 February 12. We measured a g-i spectral slope of 13$\pm$3 $\%$/100 nm, and color indices g-r = 0.70 $\pm$ 0.10, r-i = 0.25$\pm$0.06, i-Z = -0.27 $\pm$ 0.10, and Y-J = 0.41 $\pm$ 0.10. 2024 YR$_4$ has a spectrum that best matches R-type and Sa-type asteroids and a diameter of $\sim$30-65 m using our measured absolute magnitude of 23.9 $\pm$ 0.3 mag, and assuming an albedo of 0.15-0.4. The lightcurve of 2024 YR$_4$ shows $\sim$0.4 mag variations with a rotation period of $\sim$1170 s. We use photometry of 2024 YR$_4$ from Gemini and other sources taken between 2024 December to 2025 February to determine the asteroid's spin vector and shape, finding that it has an oblate, $\sim$3:1 a:c axial ratio and a pole direction of $λ$, $β$ = $\sim$42$^{\circ}$, $\sim$-25$^{\circ}$. Finally, we compare the orbital elements of 2024 YR$_4$ with the NEO population model and find that its most likely sources are resonances between the inner and central Main Belt.
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Astro Hawk (Ian Kluft) 🚀🛰️

An impact of #asteroid #2024YR4 on the #Moon could be visible from Earth, if it impacts the side that faces us. Additional hazards not mentioned in articles I've seen so far would affect planning for #NASA #Artemis landing missions and Lunar Gateway space station (not yet launched). Some ejecta/debris from the impact would leave the Moon's weak gravity and could threaten Earth or our satellites weeks or months after impact. #astronomy #PlanetaryDefense #PlanetaryDefence #LowFlyingRocks #space

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Astro Hawk (Ian Kluft) 🚀🛰️

"Asteroid will miss Earth — but may set off lunar light show" by @cosmiclog / @alanboyle - #Asteroid #2024YR4 orbit is understood well enough now that it will not impact Earth in 2032. But it's still close. A lunar impact remains possible, currently at 3.8% probability. The article paints a picture of just a light show visible from Earth. But there are more potential hazards. cosmiclog.com/2025/04/07/aster #astronomy #PlanetaryDefense #PlanetaryDefence #LowFlyingRocks #space

Cosmic Log · Asteroid will miss Earth — but may set off lunar light showAlthough astronomers have ruled out a smash-up between Earth and an asteroid known as 2024 YR4 in the year 2032, the building-sized space rock still has a chance of hitting the moon. In fact, the c…
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Michael Busch

#2024YR4 work by the asteroid group at Helsinki.

QT University of Helsinki @helsinki.fi‬
2025 April 4

Pohjoismainen teleskooppi NOT oli avainasemassa selvitettäessä potentiaalisesti vaarallisen asteroidin todennäköisyyttä törmätä Maahan.

Asteroidi 2024 YR4:llä on tällä hetkellä 0,001 prosentin todennäköisyys Maahan, mutta jopa noin 4 prosentin todennäköisyys Kuuhun.

helsinki.fi/fi/uutiset/avaruus [ Finnish ]

helsinki.fi/en/news/space/aste [ English ]

bsky.app/profile/helsinki.fi/p

Helsingin yliopistoAsteroidin törmäysuhka-arviot Maahan ja Kuuhun tarkentuneet | Helsingin yliopistoKansainvälinen tutkijaryhmä seuraa parhaillaan tarkasti Maan lähiasteroidia 2024 YR4. Viimeisimpien havaintojen perusteella asteroidin törmäystodennäköisyys Maahan vuonna 2032 pieneni 3 prosentista alle 0,001 prosenttiin.
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