Probability of #Asteroid #2024YR4 hitting the #Moon increases
Scientists improve knowledge by 20% thanks to #JamesWebb #Space #Telescope data
#NASA said data from the #JWST "improved our knowledge of where the asteroid will be on Dec. 22, 2032, by nearly 20 percent." The upshot is that there is now a 4.3% possibility that the asteroid will hit the Moon in 7.5 years' time, although it wouldn't alter the natural satellite's orbit.
https://www.theregister.com/2025/06/10/asteroid_2024_yr4_update/

To reiterate a point about asteroid impact probabilities:

Different data weights and subsets will produce significantly different estimates, even though they all will converge to either 0 or 100% impact probability eventually.

For #2024YR4 and the Moon, we will just have to be patient until 2028.

Vous vous souvenez de l'astéroïde #2024YR4 ? En février, on avait craint qu'il ne percute la Terre en décembre 2032. La probabilité d'un impact avec la Lune a été réévaluée dernièrement suite à des observations du #JWST #Webb

https://reves-d-espace.com/probabilite-impact-asteroide-2024-yr4-avec-la-lune-reevaluee-a-la-hausse/

Today on the Minor Planet Mailing List:

Discussion of the last astrometry for a while on #2024YR4 - https://groups.io/g/mpml/topic/new_observation_of_2024_yr4/113443275.

The asteroid impacting the Moon in 2032 remains possible.

We will all have to wait until 2028 to resolve that one way or the other.

Keine Gefahr für die Erde, aber vielleicht für den Mond..?Der #asteroid #2024YR4 bleibt im Blick der Planetary Defense Community.Klingt nach einem epischen Namen?Nicht nur der ist episch, auch die Aufgaben sind es.Mehr darüber gibt es im aktuellen Beitrag von Josis Blick in den Himmelhttps://sternwarte-goennsdorf.de/josi/ .Das Foto des James-Webb-Teleskops zeigt den Asteroiden.Unspektakulär?Der Brocken ist so groß wie ein Gebäude mit 15 Stockwerken!
Fotocredits: #nasa #esa #csa STScI, A. Rivkin (JHU APL)

. @asrivkin et al. at #PDC2025 : "JWST As a Tool for Early Characterization of Potential Impactors" - https://iaa.4hdt.ro/event/1/contributions/131/

Considering #2024YR4 and other objects.

NASA doubles odds of Moon hitting Near-Earth Asteroid [2024 YR4].

"Experts at NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies at the agency’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory have updated [2024 YR4]’s chance of impacting the Moon on December 22, 2032 from 1.7 to 3.8 percent," the agency said.

https://science.nasa.gov/blogs/planetary-defense/2025/04/02/nasa-update-on-the-size-estimate-and-lunar-impact-probability-of-asteroid-2024-yr4/

Aardscheerder 2024 YR4 is vermoedelijk afkomstig uit de hoofdgordel

Astronomen hebben met behulp van het GMOS-instrument (Gemini Multi-Object Spectrograph) aan de Gemini Zuid-telescoop bepaald dat de recent gevonden aardscheerder 2024 YR4 een van de grootste objecten in de recente geschiedenis is dat op de Maan kan ins

https://www.kuuke.nl/aardscheerder-2024-yr4-is-vermoedelijk-afkomstig-uit-de-hoofdgordel/

In the UK, you can now watch @Chrislintott and I do our best version of Ted Lasso and talk about football (soccer) and potentially hazardous asteroids. In particular, we were chatting about the case of 2024 YR4 https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m002b26m #astrodon #2024YR4

https://www.europesays.com/uk/17667/ ‘Earth Crosser’ Asteroid May Now Strike The Moon, Scientists Say #2024YR4 #Apophis #asteroid #Asteroid2024YR4 #AsteroidMainBelt #AsteroidOrigin #Asteroids #GeminiSouthTelescope #KeckObservatory #PlanetaryDefense #Science #Space #UK #UnitedKingdom

Sky & Telescope covers the case of #2024YR4 and its potential lunar impact in 2032:

https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/near-earth-asteroid-2024-yr4-might-aim-for-the-moon/

I read people being surprised that #2024YR4 is shaped like an irregular block.

Such a shape is typical for small rapidly-spinning asteroids, which are held together by tensile strength rather than by gravity.

For a similarly-sized comparison, consider 2015 HM10: https://public.nrao.edu/news/radar-2015-hm10/

Scientists are learning more about the roughly 200-foot asteroid 2024 YR4, dubbed the "city killer."

@Futurism reports the asteroid is shaped like a saucer: https://flip.it/VyYm_b

The discovery and characterization of Earth-crossing asteroid #2024YR4: https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.05694 -> Astronomers Trace Earth-Crossing Asteroid to Surprising Origin: https://keckobservatory.org/2024-yr4/ (namely that it's a solid, stony type that likely originated from an asteroid family in the central Main Belt between Mars and Jupiter, a region not previously known to produce Earth-crossing asteroids).

Discussion of the lunar impact risk corridor for #2024YR4 in 2032: https://groups.io/g/mpml/topic/2024_yr4_moon_impact/112132507 .

3 to 4% chance of lunar impact, with a few tenths of a percent on the far side and the rest on the near side.

But almost all on the day side; so the initial flash from an impact by #2024YR4 would be competing with the brightness of the entire rest of the Moon.