Richard Ashwell<p><span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://environmentalists.social/@marcowner" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@<span>marcowner</span></a></span> </p><p>The scientific consensus is that the current rate of <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/extinction" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>extinction</span></a> of all species is between 100 and 1000 times the background rate. That is the signature of a <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/MassExtinction" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>MassExtinction</span></a> event that has already begun, in this case, the <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/SixthMassExtinction" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>SixthMassExtinction</span></a> on this planet. That is scientific fact, not a prediction.</p><p>Whether the human race becomes extinct as a result is less certain. The <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/collapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>collapse</span></a> of civilisation as we know it much more certain, in my view.</p><p><a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/CivilisationCollapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>CivilisationCollapse</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Collapse2040" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Collapse2040</span></a></p>
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#civilisationcollapse
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Richard Ashwell<p>It is Tuesday 12th November 2024. This climbing rose is in my garden in the Midlands of the United Kingdom.</p><p>There are no red grapes from Spain in the Coop food store at the end of my road, only green ones from Brazil.</p><p>The average global temperature for 2024 is about to exceed the 1.5C limit for <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/GlobalWarming" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>GlobalWarming</span></a> set in the <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ParisAgreement" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ParisAgreement</span></a> </p><p><a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/CO2" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>CO2</span></a> levels in the atmosphere are at a record high for the time of year and not just rising, but accelerating year on year.</p><p>The current <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/extinction" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>extinction</span></a> rate of all species is between 100 and 1000 times the background rate. That is the signature of a <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/MassExtintion" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>MassExtintion</span></a>, the <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/SixthMassExtinction" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>SixthMassExtinction</span></a> in the history of this planet.</p><p>Food prices here are increasing rapidly as <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/climate" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>climate</span></a> disasters and <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ExtremeWeather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ExtremeWeather</span></a> hit various parts of Europe, which supplies 40% of our food, whilst in the UK the potato harvest is 15% down on the norm.</p><p>Our prime minister is at the 29th meeting of nations regarding <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ClimateChange" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ClimateChange</span></a>, <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/COP29" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>COP29</span></a>, making meaningless promises about what will be done to fix it. The head of the meeting is discussing <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/oil" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>oil</span></a> and <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/gas" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>gas</span></a> deals with delegates from the <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/FossilFuel" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>FossilFuel</span></a> industry.</p><p>The question now is not whether <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/CivilisationCollapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>CivilisationCollapse</span></a> will or will not occur, but when. And what disasters will occur and in what order as the majority of the population of this planet dies of hunger.</p><p>My prediction is that by 2040 if you are not growing your own food, you will not be eating. And if you are growing your own food, then roving armed bands of hungry thugs will be trying to steal it.</p><p>Now off to said Coop to buy quiche and pasta salad for supper while I still can.</p><p><a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Collapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Collapse</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Collapse2040" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Collapse2040</span></a></p>
Richard Ashwell<p><span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://discordian.social/@LordCaramac" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@<span>LordCaramac</span></a></span> </p><p>OK, fair enough, but I'm predicting the <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/collapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>collapse</span></a> of civilisation by 2040 - hence my <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Collapse2040" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Collapse2040</span></a> hashtag. Especially if the US elects a certain convicted felon today as I fear they might.</p><p><a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/CivilisationCollapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>CivilisationCollapse</span></a></p>
Richard Ashwell<p><span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://kolektiva.social/@dhayannada" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@<span>dhayannada</span></a></span> </p><p>For some time now I have considered that <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Climate" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Climate</span></a> and <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Environment" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Environment</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Doomerism" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Doomerism</span></a> is, actually, the only realistic approach. Pretending that we are not thoroughly f*cked on multiple levels actively prevents:</p><p>1) Challenging the widespread delusion that we are doing anything near what actually needs to be done</p><p>2) Preparing for the impending societal <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Collapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Collapse</span></a> that will affect everyone in ways that they simply don't understand, and don't want to understand.</p><p><a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/CivilisationCollapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>CivilisationCollapse</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/civilisationcollapse2040" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>civilisationcollapse2040</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Collapse2040" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Collapse2040</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Doomers" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Doomers</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ClimateChange" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ClimateChange</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Extinction" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Extinction</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/MassExtinction" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>MassExtinction</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/SixthMassExtinction" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>SixthMassExtinction</span></a></p>
anlomedad<p><span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://fediscience.org/@mario_angst_sci" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@<span>mario_angst_sci</span></a></span> <span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://fediscience.org/@bapeterj" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@<span>bapeterj</span></a></span> <br>Very useful! Free of charge, too. So cool! Going to use it to improve, map and quantify the inns and outs, milestones and deadlines in my project plan "Avoiding the or Timing of <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/CivilisationCollapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>CivilisationCollapse</span></a> from Cascading <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ClimateChange" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ClimateChange</span></a> Impacts on Societies". <br>The deadline for the first of the essential milestones, a social-politics milestone, is the end of 2024, by the way. Because, to be finished by 2030, a global sub-project has to be conceived in 2025 and subsequently worked on, which requires that milestone to be measurably achieved beforehand. </p><p>I describe the above to now ask you: have you heard of anyone professionally mapping the factors for civilisation collapse from cc-impacts, and designing proper project planS for avoiding it? <br>It would be very useful. When milestones aren't achieved and not appearing to be in the pipeline to be achieved soon-ish after the original deadline, the spreading of hopeium should stop. To be replaced by a focus on post-crash climate research in <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/RCPcollapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>RCPcollapse</span></a> or <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/SSP0" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>SSP0</span></a>, and for constructing fully automated containment measures for industrial toxins and radiative pollution, and for informing potential survivors on regional specifics for better preparation in small rural communities. 🙂 </p><p><a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-01919-7" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">link.springer.com/book/10.1007</span><span class="invisible">/978-3-031-01919-7</span></a></p>
Richard Ashwell<p><span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://climatejustice.social/@Pampa" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@<span>Pampa</span></a></span> Yes, it is a remote dream. I am expecting <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/CivilisationCollapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>CivilisationCollapse</span></a> by 2040 and that my child and grandchild will not have a habitable planet because I too do not think the things that are needed to avoid it are going to happen. However, if I allow this dystopian view to dominate my thoughts I will be so depressed that I will not be able to enjoy the rest of my life, so, I do what I can to reduce the damage and prepare for the worst.</p><p>I am, therefore, what is known as an <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/OptimisticDoomer" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>OptimisticDoomer</span></a>, as opposed to an out and out <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Doomer" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Doomer</span></a> who has simply given up in face of the overwhelming evidence of the <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/overshoot" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>overshoot</span></a> of <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/PlanetaryLimits" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PlanetaryLimits</span></a> and so Planetary <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/CarryingCapacity" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>CarryingCapacity</span></a>.</p><p>Thanks for the reference to the Circularity Gap report 2023. Looks really useful. <a href="https://www.circularity-gap.world/2023" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="">circularity-gap.world/2023</span><span class="invisible"></span></a></p>
Richard Ashwell<p><span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://noc.social/@GeraldKutney" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@<span>GeraldKutney</span></a></span> </p><p>And it's accelerating! I'm sticking to my prediction of <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/CivilisationCollapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>CivilisationCollapse</span></a> by 2040.</p><p>What do I mean by civilisation <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Collapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Collapse</span></a>? I mean that if you are not growing your own food (if you can given the variability of the weather), you will not be eating.</p><p><a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/CO2" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>CO2</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Climate" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Climate</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ClimateChange" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ClimateChange</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ClimateCrisis" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ClimateCrisis</span></a></p>
Richard Ashwell<p><span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://fediscience.org/@ZLabe" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@<span>ZLabe</span></a></span> </p><p><a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/FossilFuel" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>FossilFuel</span></a> use is going up, not down.<br><a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/CarbonDioxide" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>CarbonDioxide</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/CO2" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>CO2</span></a> in the atmosphere is accelerating, not levelling off or going down<br><a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Methane" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Methane</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/CH4" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>CH4</span></a> in the atmosphere is going up, not down<br><a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/NitrousOxide" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>NitrousOxide</span></a> in the atmosphere is going up, not down.</p><p><a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Climate" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Climate</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ClimateChange" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ClimateChange</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ClimateCrisis" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ClimateCrisis</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Collapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Collapse</span></a> <br><a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/TippingPoints" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>TippingPoints</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Overshoot" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Overshoot</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/EcologicalOvershoot" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>EcologicalOvershoot</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/CivilisationCollapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>CivilisationCollapse</span></a></p>
Richard Ashwell<p>From luxury bunkers to tactical vehicles, the ultra-rich are preparing for the Big One</p><p>Builders of fortified homes say inquiries and applications are up in recent years</p><p>"Their extreme wealth and privilege served only to make them obsessed with insulating themselves from the very real and present danger of <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ClimateChange" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ClimateChange</span></a>, rising <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/SeaLevels" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>SeaLevels</span></a>, mass <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/migration" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>migration</span></a>, global <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/pandemics" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>pandemics</span></a>, nativist panic and <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ResourceDepletion" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ResourceDepletion</span></a>. For them, the future of technology is about only one thing: escape from the rest of us." </p><p><a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Collapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Collapse</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/CivilisationCollapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>CivilisationCollapse</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Overshoot" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Overshoot</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ClimateCrisis" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ClimateCrisis</span></a> </p><p><a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/billionaire-bunkers-doomsday-1.7130152" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="ellipsis">cbc.ca/news/billionaire-bunker</span><span class="invisible">s-doomsday-1.7130152</span></a></p>
Richard Ashwell<p><span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://mastodontti.fi/@Supertapani" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@<span>Supertapani</span></a></span> </p><p>I agree entirely. I do, however, think that we will have a serious problem with food that will be very hard to ignore, Food prices will go through the roof as climate change impacts agriculture even more than it is already doing, in this country as well as in others (40% of our food is imported).</p><p>No doubt politicians/right wing media will find externals to blame - the wars in foreign countries (we're already blaming Putin and Ukraine) - for rising wholesale food prices, instead of the adverse and variable weather that is destroying agricultural productivity.</p><p>I just hope that people will listen to their local farming communities when they explain what the problem is. My prediction is that if you are not growing your own food in 2040 you won't be eating.</p><p><a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Collapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Collapse</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/EnvironmentalCollapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>EnvironmentalCollapse</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Climate" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Climate</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ClimateChange" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ClimateChange</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Agriculture" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Agriculture</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/CivilisationCollapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>CivilisationCollapse</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/CivilisationCollapse2040" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>CivilisationCollapse2040</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/EcologicalOvershoot" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>EcologicalOvershoot</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/EcologicalCollapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>EcologicalCollapse</span></a></p>
Richard Ashwell<p>Alan Urban: The Collapse Will Be Normalized</p><p>As <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/civilization" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>civilization</span></a> collapses, the media will attempt to normalize things like <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/war" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>war</span></a>, <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/famine" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>famine</span></a>, and <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/genocide" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>genocide</span></a>. Don't let them.</p><p>While it’s too late to prevent <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ClimateBreakdown" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ClimateBreakdown</span></a> and the <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/collapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>collapse</span></a> of civilization, it’s not too late to prevent more violence and brutality like what we’re witnessing in <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Gaza" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Gaza</span></a> and many other places around the world.</p><p>Keep protesting. Keep resisting. Keep standing up for what’s right, no matter how much it hurts. </p><p><a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/CivilisationCollapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>CivilisationCollapse</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/CivilisationCollapse2040" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>CivilisationCollapse2040</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ClimateChange" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ClimateChange</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/EcologicalOvershoot" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>EcologicalOvershoot</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/EcologicalCollapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>EcologicalCollapse</span></a></p><p><a href="https://www.collapsemusings.com/the-collapse-will-be-normalized/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="ellipsis">collapsemusings.com/the-collap</span><span class="invisible">se-will-be-normalized/</span></a></p>
Richard Ashwell<p>Bill McGuire: Labour's Green U-Turn Has Left Me Feeling Hopeless</p><p><a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/KeirStarmer" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>KeirStarmer</span></a> should think long and hard about the consequences</p><p>On the very day that the 1.5ºC dangerous climate change guardrail is smashed - for the first time - over the course of twelve months, the <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/labour" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>labour</span></a> party announces it is ditching its £28 billion <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/GreenInvestment" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>GreenInvestment</span></a> pledge, claiming the country can't afford it. The reality is, however, that we can't afford not to do this.</p><p>Furthermore, using the excuse that the country can't afford it is simply nonsensical. At least two recent studies show that continued business as usual sets us firmly on course towards economic and societal <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/collapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>collapse</span></a>, perhaps a soon as 2040.</p><p><a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Climate" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Climate</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ClimateChange" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ClimateChange</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/CivilisationCollapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>CivilisationCollapse</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/CivilisationCollapse2040" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>CivilisationCollapse2040</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Overshoot" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Overshoot</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/SocietalCollapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>SocietalCollapse</span></a></p><p><a href="https://billmcguire.substack.com/p/labours-green-u-turn-has-left-me" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">billmcguire.substack.com/p/lab</span><span class="invisible">ours-green-u-turn-has-left-me</span></a></p>
Richard Ashwell<p><span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://mastodon.social/@RealJournalism" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@<span>RealJournalism</span></a></span> </p><p>Those figures deliberately ignore <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/methane" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>methane</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/emissions" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>emissions</span></a> from all sorts of sources.</p><p>The current rate of <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/extinction" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>extinction</span></a> of all species is between 100 and 1000 times the background rate. That is the signature of a <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/MassExtinction" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>MassExtinction</span></a>. The <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/SixthMassExtinction" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>SixthMassExtinction</span></a> has already started.</p><p><a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Collapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Collapse</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/CivilisationCollapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>CivilisationCollapse</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Climate" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Climate</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ClimateChange" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ClimateChange</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Overshoot" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Overshoot</span></a></p>
Richard Ashwell<p><span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://mastodon.social/@RealJournalism" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@<span>RealJournalism</span></a></span> </p><p>This is just completely delusional:</p><p>'Despite <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ClimateChange" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ClimateChange</span></a>, Today Is the Best Time to Be Born'</p><p>'Economic growth will ensure an abundant future.'</p><p>What part of "You can't have continuous growth on a finite planet" do you not understand?</p><p><a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Climate" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Climate</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Collapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Collapse</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/CivilisationCollapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>CivilisationCollapse</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Overshoot" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Overshoot</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/EcologicalOvershoot" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>EcologicalOvershoot</span></a></p>
Richard Ashwell<p><span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://todon.eu/@rad" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@<span>rad</span></a></span> </p><p>It's not the migration that's causing the world to <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/collapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>collapse</span></a>, yer prat Donald, it's <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/CivilisationCollapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>CivilisationCollapse</span></a> that's causing the <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Migration" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Migration</span></a>! Derrrr!</p><p>Donald Tusk: "But believe me - and I say this also looking at what is happening in the USA today - it is a question of the overall survival of our Western civilization. Or we will wake up and understand that we must protect our territory, our borders, that if we are open to all forms of migration without any control, our world will actually collapse." </p><p><a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ClimateCollapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ClimateCollapse</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ClimateMigration" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ClimateMigration</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Climate" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Climate</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ClimateChange" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ClimateChange</span></a></p>
Richard Ashwell<p><span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://aus.social/@sjbone" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@<span>sjbone</span></a></span> </p><p>'So with the writing so clearly on the wall we’re headed for <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/extinction" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>extinction</span></a> - why do we not act ?'</p><p>This book explains it well, even though written in 1982:</p><p><a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Overshoot" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Overshoot</span></a> by William R. Catton Jr.</p><p>Biggest thing I got from it so far is that we have evolved to respond to immediate threats (there's a sabre toothed tiger over there!) rather than long term threats that we tend to ignore, even though logic tells us we will die eventually if we don't respond.</p><p>(Yes, I expect sabre tooth tigers were extinct before humans arrived, haven't checked, but just for illustration)</p><p><a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Collapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Collapse</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/CivilisationCollapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>CivilisationCollapse</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Climate" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Climate</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ClimateChange" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ClimateChange</span></a></p>
Richard Ashwell<p>With the World Stumbling Past 1.5 Degrees of Warming, Scientists Warn <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Climate" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Climate</span></a> Shocks Could Trigger Unrest and <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Authoritarian" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Authoritarian</span></a> Backlash</p><p>Most of the public seems unaware that global temperatures will soon push past the target to which the U.N. hoped to limit warming, but researchers see social and psychological crises brewing.</p><p><a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Authoritarianism" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Authoritarianism</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ClimateChange" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ClimateChange</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ClimateCrisis" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ClimateCrisis</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Collapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Collapse</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/CivilisationCollapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>CivilisationCollapse</span></a> </p><p><a href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/28012024/with-world-warming-scientists-warn-of-unrest-and-authoritarian-backlash/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">insideclimatenews.org/news/280</span><span class="invisible">12024/with-world-warming-scientists-warn-of-unrest-and-authoritarian-backlash/</span></a></p>
Richard Ashwell<p><span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://climatejustice.social/@kentpitman" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@<span>kentpitman</span></a></span> <span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://discordian.social/@LordCaramac" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@<span>LordCaramac</span></a></span> <span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/@MattMastodon" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@<span>MattMastodon</span></a></span> <span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://climatejustice.social/@breadandcircuses" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@<span>breadandcircuses</span></a></span> </p><p>Yes the reality will be far from a 'graceful proportional decline' due to tipping points and various discontinuities caused by events, in particular wars as we have seen recently with the effect of the Russia-Ukraine war on the supply of fuel and food.</p><p>Wars are always about resources and given where we are headed I think we can expect an increasing number of wars of all sizes without being able easily to predict when they will occur.</p><p>It is, of course, therefore impossible to include the effects of these wars, and other 'black swan events' directly in the model and means that projections for the future should be taken to be the expected mean average over several years rather than accurate values for any particular time.</p><p><a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/CivilisationCollapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>CivilisationCollapse</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/PeakCivilisation" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PeakCivilisation</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Extinction" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Extinction</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Climate" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Climate</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ClimateChange" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ClimateChange</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ClimateCrisis" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ClimateCrisis</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/collapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>collapse</span></a></p>
Richard Ashwell<p><span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://climatejustice.social/@kentpitman" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@<span>kentpitman</span></a></span> <span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://discordian.social/@LordCaramac" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@<span>LordCaramac</span></a></span> <span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://mastodonapp.uk/@MattMastodon" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@<span>MattMastodon</span></a></span> <span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://climatejustice.social/@breadandcircuses" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@<span>breadandcircuses</span></a></span> </p><p>For some properly researched and modelled figures regarding <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/collapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>collapse</span></a>, the Journal of Industrial Ecology have published some research entitled 'Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the World3 model'. You can read the whole article here: <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jiec.13442" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10</span><span class="invisible">.1111/jiec.13442</span></a></p><p>But the most immediately instructive part is the State of the World Plot here: <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Recalibration23-improved-run-compared-to-BAU-The-underlying-data-for-this-figureare_fig3_375610074" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="ellipsis">researchgate.net/figure/Recali</span><span class="invisible">bration23-improved-run-compared-to-BAU-The-underlying-data-for-this-figureare_fig3_375610074</span></a></p><p>Note that food production is less than 50% of the 2024 figure by 2050. Industrial output is less than 25%. Population has declined by about 0.5 Billion.</p><p>OK, so maybe 2040 is a bit pessimistic for 'grow your own food or die' but please note that population is less than 50% by 2100.</p><p><a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/CivilisationCollapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>CivilisationCollapse</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/PeakCivilisation" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PeakCivilisation</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Extinction" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Extinction</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Climate" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Climate</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ClimateChange" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ClimateChange</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ClimateCrisis" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ClimateCrisis</span></a></p>
Richard Ashwell<p><span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://discordian.social/@LordCaramac" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@<span>LordCaramac</span></a></span> <span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://climatejustice.social/@kentpitman" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@<span>kentpitman</span></a></span> <span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://climatejustice.social/@breadandcircuses" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@<span>breadandcircuses</span></a></span> </p><p>Love all of this and agree with all of it, except 'the peak of the Industrial Age is near'.</p><p>I believe we are already past it, or what I call <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/PeakCivilisation" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PeakCivilisation</span></a> and are already on the downward slope.</p><p>I put the peak at either the 2008 financial crash of the 1973 oil crisis. The current rising food prices and increase in general inflation are not going down as the <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ClimateCrisis" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ClimateCrisis</span></a> increasingly makes agriculture more difficult and <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/ExtremeWeather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ExtremeWeather</span></a> events cause increasingly serious financial loses worldwide. We are on the downward slope and not going back.</p><p><a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Collapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Collapse</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/CivilisationCollapse" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>CivilisationCollapse</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Overshoot" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Overshoot</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/EcologicalOvershoot" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>EcologicalOvershoot</span></a> <a href="https://climatejustice.social/tags/Extinction" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Extinction</span></a></p>
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