Voice of East<p><strong>Somaliland’s Critical Minerals Offer To The US Might Move The Needle In Favour Of Recognition</strong></p><p><strong>Somaliland’s Critical Minerals Offer To The US Might Move The Needle In Favour Of Recognition</strong></p><p>By <a href="https://voiceofeast.net/?s=Andrew+Korybko&x=0&y=0" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Andrew Korybko</a></p><p><strong>This proposal could pique Trump 2.0’s attention and ultimately catalyse a regional US pivot.</strong></p><p></p><p><a href="https://archive.is/mh92K" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Bloomberg</a> published an update late last month about Somaliland’s long-running quest for American recognition of its <a href="https://voiceofeast.net/2024/02/02/five-reasons-for-the-world-to-finally-recognize-somalilands-1991-redeclaration-of-independence/" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">1991 redeclaration of independence</a>. Apart from offering to host a US military base, which isn’t anything new, it’s now offering a <a href="https://www.stvincenttimes.com/somaliland-on-the-cusp-of-energy-mineral-boom/" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">critical minerals</a> deal too. This aligns with the global trend of countries from <a href="https://voiceofeast.net/2025/04/12/addressing-strategic-risks-in-us-pakistan-critical-mineral-cooperation/" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Pakistan</a> to <a href="https://voiceofeast.net/2025/05/02/the-amended-minerals-deal-will-likely-lead-to-more-american-weapons-packages-for-ukraine/" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Ukraine</a> and the <a href="https://voiceofeast.net/2025/07/06/is-the-us-mediated-peace-deal-between-congo-and-rwanda-a-turning-point/" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Democratic Republic of the Congo</a> leveraging their (in some cases only alleged) reserves of this resource as a means of securing continued US support.</p><p>Although Bloomberg noted that the State Department reaffirmed the US’ existing policy of “One Somalia”, the possibility remains that this could change depending on the region’s evolving dynamics. As regards Somalia, <a href="https://archive.is/v7Ox4" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">The Economist</a> recently published a report about how “[its] state-building project is in tatters” after <a href="https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2025/07/us-ground-raid-captures-islamic-state-leader-in-northern-somalia.php" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">new terrorist gains</a> and <a href="https://voiceofeast.net/2024/06/12/regional-divisions-are-widening-in-somalia-over-mogadishu-wanting-to-kick-out-ethiopian-troops/" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">intensified regional centrifugal forces</a>. Trump 2.0 might thus prefer to abandon Somalia in favour of pivoting towards more stable and prosperous Somaliland instead.</p><p>Any such decision would risk offending “Major Non-NATO Ally” Egypt, who Trump <a href="https://voiceofeast.net/2025/07/20/trumps-latest-remarks-about-gerd-raise-questions-about-his-understanding-of-this-dispute/" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">at first supported</a> over Ethiopia amidst their Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) dispute, given that Somalia relied <a href="https://voiceofeast.net/2024/10/13/five-takeaways-from-the-asmara-summit/" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">on Egypt (and Eritrea)</a> all across the last year as a “counterbalance” to Ethiopia. The context was Ethiopia’s (currently unfulfilled) <a href="https://voiceofeast.net/2024/01/02/ethiopias-port-deal-with-somaliland-is-a-diplomatic-masterstroke/" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">MoU</a> with Somaliland over recognition of its independence and stakes in at least one state company in exchange for a port of its own to diversify from dependence on Djibouti’s.</p><p>Ethiopia and Somalia then <a href="https://voiceofeast.net/2025/02/28/the-ethio-somali-rapprochement-is-a-pleasant-surprise/" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">entered into a rapprochement</a> earlier this year brought about by Turkish mediation, but <a href="https://shabellemedia.com/somalia-ethiopia-talks-mediated-by-turkiye-stall-over-somaliland-port-deal/" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">reports</a> circulated in early July that their talks had since stalled. Later last month, another report emerged that “<a href="https://voiceofeast.net/2025/07/27/egypt-draws-red-line-on-u-s-gaza-deal-gerd-dispute-takes-backseat-to-homeland-security/" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Egypt Rejected The Price That It Has To Pay For The US Siding Against Ethiopia</a>”, which was allegedly supporting Israel’s Gazan relocation plan and maybe even eventually hosting many, if not all, Gazans too. That created an opening for Ethiopia to engage in creative diplomacy with the US.</p><p>This could take the form of not ruling out participation in Israel’s Gazan relocation plan, per a <a href="https://archive.is/SSWok" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">recent Axios report</a> and unlike what Egypt supposedly just did, though conditional on foreign funding of these refugees’ stay and only in the event that others (especially Muslim-majority states) take them in too. By keeping the US’ attention and thus signalling by contrast that it’s a more reliable regional partner than Egypt, Ethiopia might then suggest facilitating a deal with Somaliland, which could take a similar form.</p><p>Instead of the US unilaterally recognizing Somaliland, this could be coordinated with Ethiopia, all three’s shared Emirati partner, <a href="https://korybko.substack.com/p/five-reasons-for-india-to-recognize" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">and India</a>. The latter’s inclusion would satisfy its reported search for a regional naval base while crafting the symbolic optics of both the world’s oldest democracy (the US) and its largest one (India) simultaneously recognizing what would in that scenario be the world’s newest democracy. Ethiopia could sweeten the deal by <a href="https://voiceofeast.net/2025/07/09/creative-ethiopian-diplomacy-might-deter-an-egyptian-backed-eritrean-tplf-offensive/" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">proposing its own critical minerals deal</a> with the US too.</p><p>These benefits – a military base in Somaliland, critical minerals deals with it and Ethiopia, and an Abraham Accords-like multilateral framework for Somaliland with the UAE, India, and then likely others too – could convince Trump to replace Egypt with Ethiopia and Somaliland as the US’ top regional partners. He might already be offended by Egypt outright rejecting the US’ reported Gaza-GERD quid pro quo so it’s possible that he’d be receptive to this deal if Ethiopia and Somaliland play their cards right.</p> <p><em>Disclaimer: The views expressed </em><em>in this article are auth</em><em>or’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of </em><em><strong>Voice of East</strong></em><em>.</em></p> <p><strong><a href="https://www.udemy.com/course/diploma-in-business-management/?referralCode=30A1A013F649D643212D" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">7 Courses in 1 – Diploma in Business Management</a></strong></p><p></p><p><span></span></p><p><a rel="nofollow noopener" class="hashtag u-tag u-category" href="https://voiceofeast.net/tag/africa/" target="_blank">#Africa</a> <a rel="nofollow noopener" class="hashtag u-tag u-category" href="https://voiceofeast.net/tag/congo/" target="_blank">#Congo</a> <a rel="nofollow noopener" class="hashtag u-tag u-category" href="https://voiceofeast.net/tag/critical-minerals/" target="_blank">#criticalMinerals</a> <a rel="nofollow noopener" class="hashtag u-tag u-category" href="https://voiceofeast.net/tag/democratic-republic-of-congo/" target="_blank">#DemocraticRepublicOfCongo</a> <a rel="nofollow noopener" class="hashtag u-tag u-category" href="https://voiceofeast.net/tag/egypt/" target="_blank">#Egypt</a> <a rel="nofollow noopener" class="hashtag u-tag u-category" href="https://voiceofeast.net/tag/eritrea/" target="_blank">#Eritrea</a> <a rel="nofollow noopener" class="hashtag u-tag u-category" href="https://voiceofeast.net/tag/ethiopia/" target="_blank">#Ethiopia</a> <a rel="nofollow noopener" class="hashtag u-tag u-category" href="https://voiceofeast.net/tag/gaza/" target="_blank">#Gaza</a> <a rel="nofollow noopener" class="hashtag u-tag u-category" href="https://voiceofeast.net/tag/geopolitics/" target="_blank">#Geopolitics</a> <a rel="nofollow noopener" class="hashtag u-tag u-category" href="https://voiceofeast.net/tag/gerd/" target="_blank">#GERD</a> <a rel="nofollow noopener" class="hashtag u-tag u-category" href="https://voiceofeast.net/tag/somalia/" target="_blank">#Somalia</a> <a rel="nofollow noopener" class="hashtag u-tag u-category" href="https://voiceofeast.net/tag/somaliland/" target="_blank">#Somaliland</a> <a rel="nofollow noopener" class="hashtag u-tag u-category" href="https://voiceofeast.net/tag/usa/" target="_blank">#USA</a></p>