@ginnoi The US continues to deteriorate as news reports of ICE continuing to erode the Rule of Law in the country are revealed, and reports of unlawful detentions are carried out on innocent travellers. International travel to the US has chilled, and the country's consumers are expecting to experience supply shortages in MAY and JUN 2025.

I think implied in all these reports about China that some times needs to be spelled out: While China's been vilified in some circles in North America, or seen to be controversial for various reasons, China's trade activities contribute to the world's economies. A great deal of people are employed and benefit from that activity - just as much as US trade activity can.

For some with ideological views - we're all about to see the logical conclusion of what I suggest is low quality thinking. Canada and the US certainly benefited from Mulroney's NAFTA. But, sadly, the US and Canada relationship's proven to be still back at 1969. Former PM Pierre Trudeau said it best:

"Living next to you is in some ways like sleeping with an elephant. No matter how friendly and even-tempered is the beast, if I can call it that, one is affected by every twitch and grunt"

From "Germany updates US travel advice after citizens detained", by Natalie Muller:

>A spokesman for the Foreign Office said the ministry was taking these incidents seriously.
>
>The ministry changed its advisory on Tuesday. It now includes a reminder that approval through the US ESTA system or holding a US visa does not automatically allow entry in every case.
>
>"The final decision on whether a person can enter the US lies with the US border authorities," the spokesperson said Wednesday, noting that the same was true for German authorities.
>
>He added that the change did not amount to a travel warning.

As travel to the US has chilled out of safety concerns, US consumers are expected to be hit with supply shortages by MAY 2025. From "Port Of Los Angeles Warns 'Difficult Decisions' Ahead As Shipments From China Cease", by Kit Norton, the Port of Los Angeles Executive Director, Gene Seroka, has already noted that China has pivoted its suppliers of soybeans from the US to Brazil. Also, import volumes to the Los Angeles Port are already dropping as compared to 2024.

As observers often note, once tariffs are applied, and suppliers are changed over, these tariffs are rarely lifted. For the US Farmer - I suggest there is no Phase Two of discussions between the US and China. This could be the end of the relationship entirely, and potentially the start of a long period of US subsidization to prevent small to medium US farmers from going under.

Norton's report also goes on to share thoughts from Apollo Global Management's Chief Economist, Torsten Slok, who shares the timeline of when the supply shortages will hit the US consumer:

>Trump announced his "liberation day" tariffs on April 2. It takes about 20 to 40 days for container ships to sail to the U.S. from China, according to Apollo. Slok estimates that container ships coming to U.S. ports could come to a stop by mid-May.
>
>It then takes about 1-to-10 days of transit time for trucking/rail to bring goods from the ports to cities. Apollo Global Management predicts that by late May domestic freight demand will "come to a halt" and that there will be "empty shelves," forcing retailers and others to deal with lower sales.
>
>By early June, Slok forecasts there will be layoffs in the domestic freight and retail industries with a recession hitting the U.S. this summer.

Canada has already seen a surge in trade with China via the Port of Vancouver, and expansion in Roberts Bank Terminal 2 appears to be part of that pivot.

#AbLeg #AbPoli #CdnPoli 20

https://kfor.com/news/local/were-citizens-oklahoma-city-family-traumatized-after-ice-raids-home-but-they-werent-suspects/

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/news/2025/04/21/german-tourists-turned-away-us-border/83195396007/

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-updates-us-travel-advice-after-citizens-detained/a-71980369

https://www.investors.com/news/trump-trade-war-difficult-decisions-as-china-shipments-cease/

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-trade-with-china-surged-at-port-of-vancouver-in-2024-ahead-of-us/

https://archive.ph/Ip9Ts

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/sunday/the-sunday-edition-june-17-2018-1.4692469/sleeping-with-a-very-cranky-elephant-the-history-of-canada-u-s-tensions-1.4699017