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#forecasting

1 post1 participant0 posts today
infoclio.ch

The latest issue of the journal ‘Geschichte und Informatik / Histoire et informatique’ focuses on «Perspectives on the History of Forecasting».

The contributions offer a rich overview of the history of forecasting from the interwar period to the present day, covering a geographical area stretching from the United States to the former USSR. #openaccess #history #forecasting #histodons

infoclio.ch/en/neue-ausgabe-vo

Continued thread
Nonilex

What’s drawn less attention is how the *downsizing* appears to be part of an effort to #privatize the work of #FederalAgencies. In several instances, the companies poised to step into the void have deep ties to people tapped by #Trump to run #weather related agencies.

#Privatization would diminish a central role the #Federal govt has played in #forecasting since the 1800s, which…poses a particular harm for those facing financial strain who may not be able to afford #commercial weather data.

Continued thread
Nonilex

The #billionaire also ran a financial firm, which he left in the control of his sons, that stands to benefit if #Trump’s admin follows through on a decade-long #Republican effort to #privatize govt #weather #forecasting.

Deadly #flooding in central #Texas has drawn a spotlight to #BudgetCuts & #MassLayoffs at the #NWS & the #NOAA, 2 agencies housed within the #Commerce Dept that provide the public w/ #free #climate & weather data that can be crucial during #NaturalDisasters.

#law#broligarchy
Rami Krispin :unverified:

I had the pleasure of presenting this week at the @rladiesrome meetup about forecasting with linear regression. This workshop covered the following topics:
🔹Time series decomposition
🔹Correlation and seasonal analysis
🔹Modeling trend and seasonality
🔹Using piecewise regression to model change in trend
🔹Residuals analysis

The workshop recording is available online:
youtube.com/watch?v=lk3a3GQ7kc

YouTubeR-Ladies Rome (English) - Forecasting Time Series with Linear Regression: A Feature-Driven ApproachBy R-Ladies Rome
#RStats#DataScience#timeseries
Miguel Afonso Caetano

"At first, I liked AI 2027 anyway. The authors are trying to call attention to a real problem: we are not sufficiently prepared for what happens when and if “superhuman intelligence” arrives, especially not if it is misaligned with humans. And you could worry about that even if you don’t expect machines to go rogue, since bad human actors could certainly use further advances in intelligence to cause mayhem, if those advances are left unchecked. They want to slow down the race dynamic in AI, and I can well understand why.

And even though I highly doubt AGI will arrive in three years, I can’t absolutely promise you it won’t happen in 10. We certainly aren’t prepared now, and if we don’t get moving, we won’t be prepared in 10, either.

But here’s the thing - projects like AI 2027 are probably having a paradoxical effect. They are written with the intention of slowing down an arms race to build a technology that we can’t control, but what they are actually doing is speeding up that very arms race, in two different ways."

garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-

Marcus on AI · The “AI 2027” Scenario: How realistic is it?By Gary Marcus
#AI#GenerativeAI#AGI
O=C=O

Weather forecasting and climate modeling move closer together

However, current research questions, such as those concerning the regional impacts of anthropogenic #ClimateChange, require that the gap between #weather #forecasting and #climate modeling be gradually closed. This is made possible by modern #supercomputers, which can calculate longer time periods with high spatial resolution.

A team of researchers from the #MPI-M, the #DWD, and other partners has taken on this task and is bringing together what belongs together: the #ICON developments for numerical weather prediction and climate applications.

"Our project has benefited greatly from the fact that the components use the same model structure," says Wolfgang Müller, group leader at MPI-M and lead author of the recently published paper presenting first successes of the project.

Roland Potthast, head of the Department of Meteorological Analysis and Modeling at the DWD, highlights the societal relevance of the work: "The developments help us to take an integrated approach to weather and climate and to provide well-coordinated services ranging from high-resolution weather #forecasts to seasonal and decadal climate forecasts."

phys.org/news/2025-06-weather-

Phys.org · Weather forecasting and climate modeling move closer togetherBy Max Planck Society
#ClimateScience
ResearchBuzz: Firehose

The Register: Microsoft-backed AI out-forecasts hurricane experts without crunching the physics. “Scientists have developed a machine learning model that can outperform official agencies at predicting tropical cyclone tracks, and do it faster and cheaper than traditional physics-based systems.”

https://rbfirehose.com/2025/05/26/the-register-microsoft-backed-ai-out-forecasts-hurricane-experts-without-crunching-the-physics/

ResearchBuzz: Firehose | Individual posts from ResearchBuzz · The Register: Microsoft-backed AI out-forecasts hurricane experts without crunching the physics | ResearchBuzz: Firehose
More from ResearchBuzz: Firehose
#ai#aiassisted#forecasting
Benjamin Carr, Ph.D. 👨🏻‍💻🧬

#US #weather #forecasting is more crippled than previously thought as #hurricane season nears
Thirty National Weather Service (#NWS) offices are without a chief #meteorologist
Some of these offices issue forecasts for major population centers such as New York City, Houston and Cleveland. Several are prone to #hurricanes and #tornadoes.
cnn.com/2025/05/02/weather/nws

CNN · US weather forecasting is more crippled than previously known as hurricane season nearsBy Andrew Freedman
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