General PsychiatryThe p-value and model specification in statisticsThe p value has been widely used as a way to summarise the significance in data analysis. However, misuse and misinterpretation of the p value is common in practice. Our result shows that if the model specification is wrong, the distribution of the p value may be inappropriate, which makes the decision based on the p value invalid.
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#nullhypothesis
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"In real life, we weigh the anticipated consequences of the decisions that we are about to make. That approach is much more rational than limiting the percentage of making the error of one kind in an artificial (null hypothesis) setting or using a measure of evidence for each model as the weight."
Longford (2005) http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/stuff_for_blog/longford.pdf
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Surveys, coincidences, statistical significance 
"What Educated Citizens Should Know About Statistics and Probability"
By Jessica Utts, in 2003: https://ics.uci.edu/~jutts/AmerStat2003.pdf via @hrefna
Something I can't say on #facebook without repercussions from family and friends: faith is dead, long live faith.
I left the #lds church after about 40 years (Exodus joke here). The main reason was that I just stopped believing all the doctrine. Every "spiritual experience" I'd ever had could finally be explained much more easily by basic things I understood about humans and myself than by religious concepts.
And since then I have those "spiritual experiences" over and over. I feel what I would have once identified as The Spirit when I read about refugees or people who overcame great odds; when I hear moving music or watch an emotional scene in a movie.
The past few days I've been having spiritual experiences every time I feel a glimmer of hope for the continued existence of my democracy, or when I read about ways of helping vulnerable populations survive this administration.
I said "long life #faith" but that's not quite right. I don't have the kind of faith I had as a religious Mormon person. I am working on whether faith is a relevant concept anymore, for me. Hope, however--hope is something I understand and need.
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There even wikipedia on the "Misuse of p-values": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misuse_of_p-values
I therefore am adding to my guidelines: "Instead of telling researchers what they want to know, statisticians should teach researchers which questions they can ask. […]
Before we can improve our statistical inferences, we need to improve our statistical questions."
Excerpt from Daniël Lakens (2021) https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1745691620958012
en.wikipedia.orgMisuse of p-values - Wikipedia
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In 2016, the American Statistical Association #ASA made a formal statement that "a p-value, or statistical significance, does not measure the size of an effect or the importance of a result".
It also stated that "p-values do not measure the probability that the studied hypothesis is true, or the probability that the data were produced by random chance alone".
I hold an undergraduate degree in #engineering from the flagship land-grant institution of a Southern state in a drinking town with a football problem.
You want to blame universities for #CriticalTheory, post-#ColonialStudies, and #IdentityPolitics, but I’m your #NullHypothesis.
GTFOH
#NewPaper #Archaeology #NullHypothesis
Eren, M., Bebber, M., Buchanan, B., Grunow, A., Key, A., Lycett, S., . . . Riley, T. (2023). Antarctica as a ‘natural laboratory’ for the critical assessment of the archaeological validity of early stone tool sites. Antiquity, 97(392), 472-482. doi:10.15184/aqy.2023.4