@nonlinear @sarahjeong.bsky.social
Yes, SpaceX will eventually have a lives-lost incident, and it will be ugly. How the market / investors take it I have no prediction for.
But NASA has had several of those types of accidents over the years, so the waterfall / perfection model isn't immune to them, either. The two shuttle losses were due to bureaucracy that defeated NASA's safety culture, and the Apollo 1 debacle showed that their vaunted safety and technical reviews actually could miss something very important - several things simultaneously, in fact.
I think it's unfair to compare SpaceX's current test-to-failure of Super Heavy and Starship to human-rated missions from anyone. They did the same test-to-failure rapid development with Falcon 9 and Cargo Dragon, leading to Crew Dragon, and they haven't had a life-lost incident yet. They're not deliberately testing-to-failure with humans on board.
Compendium: SIFs, Major Hazards, Fatal & Traumatic hazards, risks
This is an expansion to my prior compendium on Critical Controls, Barriers and Energy thinking. Suggest you read that in conjunction to this, link here:
Barriers, Critical Controls, Verifications, Energy Models
If you’re after indicators check this mini-compendium out:
Safety & Risk Performance indicators (lead, lag, drive, process safety + more)
This compendium focuses on articles discussing SIFs, fatal & traumatic hazards, risks and similar concepts. Focus is on acute traumatic injury – occupational health/chronic exposures will be covered in the future.
I’ve focused on full-text articles – so there’s heaps of relevant articles not included here because I couldn’t source a link. Abstracts are towards the end.
I’ve largely omitted major hazards and process safety, as there’s too much ground to cover in a single article. I’ve also not included much traffic/transport, aviation and some other select industries.
NB. A special call-out to NIOSH – who has been supporting research on fatal and traumatic workplace injuries for decades. You’ll find several studies supported by them here.
Feel free to shout a coffee if you’d like to support the growth of my site:
https://buymeacoffee.com/benhutchinsonhttps://www.assp.org/docs/default-source/psj-articles/f1bayona_0923.pdf?sfvrsn=2ab06946_0
https://aeasseincludes.assp.org/professionalsafety/pastissues/058/05/F2Manu_0513.pdf
https://ingaa.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/39015.pdf
https://www.pge.com/assets/pge/docs/about/doing-business-with-pge/SIF-Prevention-Field-Guide.pdf
https://ascelibrary.org/doi/pdf/10.1061/JCEMD4.COENG-13741?download=true
https://ascelibrary.org/doi/pdf/10.1061/JCEMD4.COENG-14545?trk=public_post_comment-text
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/01446193.2016.1274418
https://www.qmihsconference.org.au/wp-content/uploads/qmihsc-1995-writtenpaper-mcdonald.pdf
https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/aaaj-03-2014-1625/full/html
INTERMEDIATE MEASURES FOR SAFETY – Geoff McDonaldDownload BETTER WORDS, CONCEPTS AND MODELS – better safety – Geoff McDonaldDownload 1997_spk008_McDonaldDownloadhttps://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10468201/
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.puhip.2025.100598
https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/288368964.pdf
https://www.academia.edu/81254206/Storybuilder_A_tool_for_the_analysis_of_accident_reports
https://www.whitequeen.nl/assets/papers/management-failures.pdf
https://www.whitequeen.nl/assets/papers/temp-workers.pdf
https://www.icheme.org/media/9015/xxiii-paper-05.pdf
https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/2459401
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0950423021003041
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https://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=13788&context=dissertations
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2021.105494
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https://www.parliament.qld.gov.au/Work-of-the-Assembly/Tabled-Papers/docs/5620t197/5620t197.pdf
https://aeasseincludes.assp.org/professionalsafety/pastissues/058/07/F3Ferg_0713.pdf
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https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/downloads/hh63t155h
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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsr.2023.07.015
https://www.cell.com/heliyon/pdf/S2405-8440(23)00596-0.pdf
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/10803548.2021.1916238
https://www.osti.gov/etdeweb/servlets/purl/691242
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https://doi.org/10.3390/su13147592
https://www.e3s-conferences.org/articles/e3sconf/pdf/2023/54/e3sconf_geotech2023_04002.pdf
https://iaeme.com/MasterAdmin/Journal_uploads/IJMET/VOLUME_10_ISSUE_2/IJMET_10_02_167.pdf
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https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/272/3/032063/pdf
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.3233/WOR-182702
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.shaw.2019.06.007
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.3233/WOR-203291
https://ira.lib.polyu.edu.hk/bitstream/10397/95186/1/Fatal_Construction_Accidents.pdf
https://www.cell.com/heliyon/pdf/S2405-8440(23)08923-5.pdf
https://ttu-ir.tdl.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/47080fec-ed1d-4e76-9a25-100cb6db3ac6/content
https://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?pid=S0718-915X2020000200271&script=sci_arttext&tlng=en
https://pure.tue.nl/ws/portalfiles/portal/2318431/200410809.pdf
https://iris.unisalento.it/bitstream/11587/407110/5/GnoniMaraisSaleh_NearMiss_submitted.pdf
https://www.aidic.it/cet/19/74/232.pdf
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5395534/pdf/IJPH-46-380.pdf
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ajim.23681
https://search.informit.org/doi/pdf/10.3316/informit.450232614927618
https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s43621-024-00197-3.pdf
https://www.academia.edu/91344828/Occupational_safety_during_interventions_in_confined_spaces
https://www.academia.edu/34179412/The_Causes_of_Electrical_Fatalities_at_Work
https://www.academia.edu/7055163/Causes_of_electrical_deaths_and_injuries_among_construction_workers
https://electricalsafetyworkshop.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/255/ESW-2023-12.pdf
https://researchonline.jcu.edu.au/72498/1/72498_Casey_et_al_2021.pdf
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jlp.2021.104698
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.psep.2021.02.040
https://www.academia.edu/79778168/Bow_tie_analysis_of_a_fatal_underground_coal_mine_collision
https://upcommons.upc.edu/bitstream/handle/2117/96657/Bowtie%20models.pdf
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0310057X1604400615
https://safety177496371.wordpress.com/2024/01/22/accidents-and-fatal-accidents-some-paradoxes/
https://cyberleninka.org/article/n/1515586.pdf
https://www.icevirtuallibrary.com/doi/pdf/10.1680/cien.2006.159.6.46
https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/190687141.pdf
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2010.03.001
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC1765407/pdf/v007p00i27.pdf
http://behavioral-safety.com/articles/scandcsr2019.pdf
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-58824-y.pdf
https://aeasseincludes.assp.org/professionalsafety/pastissues/061/09/F2_0916.pdf
https://www.academia.edu/download/39190036/Final_printed.pdf
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm?abstractid=4330169
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.3233/WOR-182715
https://open.clemson.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1464&context=all_dissertations
https://pure.coventry.ac.uk/ws/portalfiles/portal/46235508/Binder1.pdf
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/216507990205001107
https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/13/7/638/pdf
https://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=13788&context=dissertations
https://aeasseincludes.assp.org/professionalsafety/pastissues/063/04/F2_0418.pdf
https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/9742/cdc_9742_DS1.pdf
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5448973/pdf/nihms860902.pdf
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10202011/pdf/nihms-1897745.pdf
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC1765407/pdf/v007p00i27.pdf
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC1756586/pdf/v008p00306.pdf
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4631642/pdf/nihms726279.pdf
https://doi.org/10.5491/SHAW.2010.1.2.107
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10984334/pdf/nihms-1973207.pdf
https://www.academia.edu/download/49350344/ajim.1030420161004-25096-xihixo.pdf
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC1757606/pdf/v055p00485.pdf
https://journals.utm.my/mjce/article/download/15846/7330
https://onepetro.org/SPEHSE/proceedings-abstract/16HSE/2-16HSE/187032
https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19106198
https://repository.uantwerpen.be/docman/irua/0edcef/157788_2022_02_23.pdf
https://doi.org/10.1061/JMENEA.MEENG-6074
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID4605175_code698198.pdf?abstractid=3988416&mirid=1
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/15614263.2021.1878893
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/jhrm.21583
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0925753518309160
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LinkedIn Post: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/compendium-sifs-major-hazards-fatal-traumatic-risks-ben-hutchinson-hv0wc
https://www.europesays.com/uk/17634/ Abu Dhabi Abandoned After Five-Horse Incident #AbuDhabi #fatality #FiveHorseIncident #ListedAbuDhabiChampionship #MarcelinoRodrigues #QaisAlBusaidi #racing #RichardMullen #SenseOfWisdom(GB) #SilvestreDeSousa #Sports #StormyOcean(GB) #TadhgO'Shea #UK #UnitedKingdom
Tesla named 'The Deadliest Car Brand in America',
#NHTSA data shows
"iSeeCars" pegs the Tesla #fatality rate at 5.6 accidents per billion vehicle miles traveled
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2024/11/24/tesla-named-deadliest-car-brand-in-america/76335529007/
#Tesla #Kia #Hyundai #Toyota #Honda
SFIST: (March 11, 2025)
Testimony Reveals Doors Would Not Open on Cybertruck That Caught Fire in Piedmont, Killing Three
"...And troublingly, that testimony also showed the Cybertruck’s doors could not be opened in the aftermath of the crash, preventing Riordan from pulling the other three victims from the flaming wreckage. ..."
ABC7NY: Fiery Tesla crash leaves woman dead, another seriously burned (2/4/25)
Yeesh, someone died per local news outlet, appears they may have been trapped.
New 3 Las Vegas: 1 dead after Cybertruck explodes in flames outside Trump Hotel in Las Vegas
Tesla Tops Fatal Accident Rates In New Study
Misleading labels like “Full-Self Driving,” touchscreen-centric controls and driver complacency have raised growing concern over safety.
Tesla Model Y has a fatal accident rate of more than three times the average car over a billion miles driven. The Model S is twice more likely to result in a fatal crash than the average car.
#tesla #safety #fatality #NHTSA #automotive #auto #cars #transportation #ADAS
https://insideevs.com/news/741185/tesla-fatal-accident-rates-new-study-report/
High cumulative #viral titers of #influenza virus in #animals with significant disease #fatality rates indicate a potential trade-off between fatality and transmissibility, https://etidiohnew.blogspot.com/2024/12/high-cumulative-viral-titers-of.html
Over last weekend, a young woman working for Walmart in Halifax died in a baking oven that was on at the time. The investigation is ongoing, so we don't have a lot of detail, but here is what we know.
https://www.thesafetymag.com/ca/news/general/19-year-old-walmart-worker-died-in-baking-oven/510940
Cit of Roswell 10/20/24 0930am MT: "...Many motorists became stranded when their vehicles got stuck in flood waters on many streets. Some people had to await rescue on top of their vehicles that were covered by water. Some vehicles were swept by the water into the river channel. One fatality has been confirmed as a result of the flooding. Search-and-rescue efforts are still underway this morning. ..."
So, die Wasserballons sind jetzt abgefüllt … gefroren & mit Tabasco…Tictac, Nikotin und Tabak xD #lamejoke
Remains of the person swept away during a flash flood in the Grand Canyon has been recovered. #GrandCanyonNationalPark #NPS #FlashFlood #fatality https://m.ai6yr.org/@NatlParkService_bot/113025662213398627
Morgan Academy football player injury: Selma, Alabama high school quarterback Caden Tellier dies after being injured during game - ABC7 Los Angeles
https://abc7.com/post/morgan-academy-football-player-injury-selma-alabama-high-school-quarterback-caden-tellier-dies-after-being-injured-during-game/15229453/ #football #fatality