"Could a #FarRight tidal wave really hit the #EU – or will 400 million voters turn out to stop the demagogues?" Must read by #Guardian associate #Europe editor Katherine Butler -

"Just call her #Giorgia. The far-right #Italian prime minister urged voters to use her first name this week when she launched her election campaign for a seat in the European Parliament. No, Giorgia #Meloni does not actually want to sit as an #MEP when EU citizens go to the polls on 6-9 June.

Confused? Meloni will resign her seat the moment she is elected and nominate a party replacement – otherwise, she would have to quit as Italian PM. Her “shameless stunt”, as some called it, is intended to personalise the campaign and boost her Brothers of #Italy party’s chances.

Slogans, promises, leaflets and billboards are being cranked out across Europe as 400 million voters prepare to directly elect the 720 people they want to represent them in the #EuropeanParliament for the next five years.

Meloni’s ploy aside, the June vote is a unique exercise in #democracy. True, European parliament elections tend to be fought mostly on domestic rather than Europe-wide issues. But MEPs have extensive powers in shaping legislation and deciding how EU money gets spent.

This is why Meloni, Viktor #Orbán, Marine #LePen and many of their Eurosceptic allies on the hard right are investing so much effort in winning the public vote. They know they have a golden opportunity to reshape the EU’s future agenda and the political direction of its member states.

Polling suggests not just a surge in support for the hard right but, as Gordon Brown wrote in the Guardian, a “tidal wave” that could give forces led by “ultra-nationalist demagogues” as much as 25% of the June vote. In nine EU countries, including #France, #Austria, Italy, the #Netherlands and #Poland, far right or populist parties predicted to finish first and to have strong showings in nine others.

Brown argues that this rightward shift is driven by a near zero growth and “doom-loop” of economic pessimism that is, in turn, fuelling an entrenched anti-immigrant, anti-foreigner “blame culture”.

MEPs are organised not by nationality but by political affiliation. The two hard-right “families” in the Brussels/Strasbourg parliament are Identity and Democracy (which houses France’s National Rally, Germany’s #AfD and the Danish People’s party), and European Conservatives and Reformists (where Meloni’s party, Poland’s Law and Justice and Spain’s Vox sit). Both groups are set for big gains. That could upset the traditional dominance of centre-right, social democrat and liberal groupings. But the far right are riven by divisions, including over #Russia, so may fail to achieve any of their aims. They could, on the other hand, work the system, doing deals with centrist MEPs to derail or even kill off pet hates, including the flagship green deal.

For #France, all eyes will be on the fallout for national politics. Marine Le Pen’s far right Rassemblement National is surging in the polls and this contest is widely seen as a staging post for the next presidential election in 2027, when Le Pen will most likely stand again for the Élysée.

President #Macron tried to mobilise voters last week, warning in a speech that the EU could wither and die if it did not unite on issues such as defence. But Macron, as Paul Taylor argued here, could be heading for lame duck territory after the June vote. By contrast, the outlook for Le Pen and her wingman in Europe, the TikTok-friendly Jordan Bardella (profiled here by Angelique Chrisafis), is excellent.

Along with Italy and Hungary, several European countries already have far-right parties either in coalition or propping up minority governments. Local and national elections in #Germany, #Belgium and #Austria later this year could deliver further gains. That baleful prospect has already bled into the mainstream with centrist politicians mimicking hardline ideas on immigration and the environmental agenda.

As the 600 outgoing MEPs returned home last week, they were warned that democracy and truth are at stake. The risk of disinformation swaying voters to back pro-Russian MEPs is considered so high that Brussels on Tuesday gave Meta an ultimatum to root out fake news.

Russia’s assault on #Ukraine could be a powerful message for those making the case for a strong and progressive Europe. Ursula von der Leyen, who is also campaigning for a second term as European Commission president, attacked “Putin’s proxies”, on the EU’s far right and talked about seeing “the body bags in Bucha” during a debate in Maastricht on Monday.

A moving video launched by the EU features older Europeans who survived Nazi or Soviet occupation pleading with their grandchildren to cast their votes. It remains to be seen if any voters, let alone younger ones, see their their June choices as being this consequential. Turnout is typically low, but there are five weeks for the message to sink in."