I'm by no means an expert in Canadian politics, but it doesn't stop me from having strong opinions about it ;-)

The news from the Canadian election from last night was very positive. I personally think it will be good for Canada if the Liberal party has to form a minority government, because I think it would be a good thing for the Bloc and the NDP to potentially play a role in forming a new government.

But the most important thing was that yesterday's vote was a clear vote against Trump's imperial ambitions and a vote in favor of Canadian sovereignty.

On a side note - I am sad for the losses by the NDP. I remember well how the party stood behind the US war resisters who were seeking refuge in Canada during the Iraq and Afghan wars and have long appreciated them for this. That said, I can understand why many leftist voters voted for the Liberals this time, but in the long-term I worry that this could lead to a dilution of multi-party democracy in Canada.

Liberal Win - 4 seats away from majority status.
1. PP lost the election.
2. PP lost his seat in Careleton.
3. Jagmeet resigns. NDP lost official party status.
4. The Green Party is not even on the map.
5. Bloc Québécois has 23 seats.

That sums it up. #Ottawa #Canada #Liberal #NDP #Bloc #Poli #Politics #Election #FederalElection

If you are like me and have cut regular TV, CBC Gem on AppleTV has CBCNewsNetwork on Free Preview.

They just showed Yves-Francois Blanchet casting his ballot.
#cbc #appletv #Bloc #elxn45

National #Elxn45 #CanPoli polls update!

I drew ‘trend lines” following the bottom for each party.

Definitely a break happened around April 2-4.

Liberal and Conservative party numbers shifted together.

The #LPC surge stopped and kind of reset to a lower, very stable or slightly upward movement.

The #CPC halted their decline and have slowly recovered.

The #NDP and #Bloc both saw low, but stable, numbers move to a slight decline.

In all though, VERY stable numbers!
#CdnPoli

End of the 3rd work-week of the campaign and the last before advance voting starts!
(You can go here for info on voting before election day!
https://www.elections.ca/content2.aspx?section=faq&document=faqvot&lang=e#vot2a)

Projections and poills are pretty static but there are some small moves.

338 project the Liberals at 196 seats (a majority), CPC at 120, Bloc at 17, NDP at 8, and -- for the first time -- the Greens holding their 2 seats.

As for actual polls below, the national polls are very static. I'm starting to wonder if there is a heartbeat in the people taking these polls. lol.

The Quebec poll is a little more interesting. The Liberals have definitely come down from on-high but remain with a giant lead in opinion which is likely the biggest reason they are also likely to win a majority.

Canada: https://338canada.com/polls.htm
Quebec: https://338canada.com/polls-qc.htm
#CanPoli #Poll #CdnPoli #Elxn45 #LPC #CPC #Bloc #NDP #GPC

National and Quebec polls March 23 (start of #elxn45) to April 7.

I've changed the time series to only be since the Election was called on March 23 so we can see how things have changed... or not.

National: All parties remaining near where they have been since campaign start. Will anything push these numbers?

Quebec: Pretty much the same but the one thing you can say for sure is the Liberals have come off their very high highs of 50% and are now back down to Earth, but there is still a significant lead over the Bloc and CPC.

The NDP bumps around in the doldrums under 10%. The Green and PPC vote are nearly irrelevant.

These are reported at 338canada.com
They are the raw poll numbers, not seat projections.
National polls are only those rated "A" by 338canada.
Quebec are all polls.

Polls up to April 6 as reported by 338 (these are the poll numbers as reported, not projections)

I'm including both the National and Quebec numbers because there is some interesting movement in the Bloc numbers nationally downward, but it is not reflected in the Quebec numbers themselves. It seems that half Quebec polls have the Bloc polling around 20% and the other around 30%. A rather huge difference.

However, there does seem to be a decline in Liberal support in Quebec over the past week.
#CanPoli #CdnPoli #Elxn45 #Polls #LPC #Bloc #NDP #CPC #GPC

Is someting happening in Quebec?!

The Bloc have broken below the 5% (national poll) barrier twice in the latest two days of polling, which is for April 4th and 5th.

Mainstreet polls, 4% on the 4th, then 3% on the 5th.
There are also Liaison “B" grade (not included on graph) polling that pegged them at 4% in their four most recent pollings since April 2nd.

LPC/CPC still within usual bounds. NDP steady.

https://338canada.com/polls.htm

Looking at the latest polls on this the eve of the 3rd week… everyone is still in their band that they've been in since March 24.

But I do notice the Bloc has hit a new low of 4%.

A sign of a subtle shift in seat-rich Quebec?

Note, the graph below only shows the “A rated" national polls as listed at 338canada.com.

LPC: continuing in their band, but on a short downward.
CPC: continuing in their band, but on a short upward.
NDP: fairly stable around 8%
GPC/PPC: wallowing under 5%

https://338canada.com/polls.htm
#CanPoli #CdnPoli #Elxn45 #Bloc #NDP #LPC #CPC #GPC

I created a line chart from the data of polls tracked by 338Canada.com. I wanted to see it myself.

Nothing revelatory here but I really wanted to watch that CPC and NDP trend. This makes it easier than looking at the table.

Looks like the CPC is stuck in the 35-40% band. The LPC has reached its peak around 45% and the NDP and Bloc found their bottoms at 6% and 4% respectively.

Will the #TrumpTariffs produce a shift?

https://338canada.com/polls.htm
#Elxn45 #CanPoli #CPC #LPC #NDP #Bloc #GPC #PPC

In 4 Monday's we will be having #elxn45 in Canada!

If it were held today, according to 338canada.com, the networks would likely call it almost immediately if these projections bear out. Eastern Canada will send 151 Liberals. Only 172 seats are needed for a majority.

I still think the NDP projection is way too low, and I expect 2 Greens, but neither of those will change the overall outcome.

That said, 4 weeks is a long time!
#CdnPoli #CanPoli #NDP #LPC #CPC #Bloc #Green

When I got to the gym I felt a bit sluggish. After warming up I was tired. Kinda hard to get going.
In the end I did manage a couple of reds, this is one of them! It took me a while to stick the dyno, but I flashed the rest. (although the first time I stuck the dyno, my heel slipped later on)

March Abacus survey suggests 81 per cent of NDP voters want to see Liberal Leader Mark Carney elected prime minister. The numbers are similar for Bloc Québécois supporters, 80 per cent of whom say they would also prefer Carney to Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. #election2025 #liberals #NDP #bloc #carney #canada
https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal-elections/jagmeet-singh-needs-to-stop-pretending-hes-going-to-win-the-election/article_39991b60-c9cf-488c-9363-7880d3159aab.html

#CPPotD
WHEN WILL CARNEY CALL AN ELECTION?

CBC: Liberals lagging other parties in candidates as election call could be days awa https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal-mp-candidates-1.7486203

Here's my new project. It's a black-graded problem at Totem Meyrin. Super happy with this weird swing move!
I've already done the second part, so I really "just" need to send it in one go.

All I know from a Canadian perspective about all that is happening with the USA and Ukraine and Canada and the UK and Europe and all the rest, is the darned Liberal Leadership race cannot be over soon enough!!

We need to have an election, and boy, IS IT GOING TO BE AN ELECTION.

I forgot to post this last week: my brother and I did the valentine's day special at Totem meyrin. It wasn't very hard, but hanging on to a human limb is always weird and wobbly. This was on sight, and we spent more than 2 minutes on the wall. Sped up most of the boring parts!
#climbing #bouldering #bloc #escalade #totem